Senior Honors Thesis
Location: Macalester College, St. Paul, Minnesota.
Duration: September 2025 - May 2026
Honors Thesis
To continue my exploration of oil sales across Icelandic municipalities, I am conducting a 1-year-long Seniors Honors Thesis. Working across disciplines, I am bridging my Environmental Studies and Data Science skills to explore differences in Icelandic oil sales across municipalities and time using Small Area Estimation modeling.
Advisors
Dr. Christie Manning, Environmental Studies
Dr. Taylor Okonek, Statistics
Iceland’s unique energy portfolio
Iceland aims to significantly and quickly change its energy sources with goals of carbon neutrality by 2040 and being fossil fuel-free by 2050. While Iceland’s electricity already originates from 100% renewable energy, it still relies on oil for land transportation, marine transportation, aviation, and industry. With over 60% of Icelanders living in the capital region, Iceland’s clean energy transition must also consider the remaining population living in smaller municipalities and rural areas. Differences in regional Icelandic oil consumption have yet to be studied, and a gap exists between the state and local governments about climate action. This project uses newly available oil sales data from 2010-2020 to help address spatial energy consumption uncertainties and promote effective energy transition policies.
Research question
What factors impact oil consumption across time and space in Iceland?
Model
Small Area Estimation model with Bayesian Methods.